In recent years, Europe has slid from one crisis to the next. The national debt and the money supply grew. At the same time, the pandemic has led to significant shortages in the supply of goods and an excess of demand has emerged. A fierce inflation set in, gaining momentum month after month and now exceeding the historical scope of the post-war period. At the current margin, consumer goods price inflation stands at 7.9% (as of end-May 2022), and commercial producer price inflation is already above 33.5% (as of April 2021). This is the highest level in half a century. The ECB would now have to put the brakes on inflation, but it is playing down the danger.
Debt ratios in major euro countries have doubled between 2008 and 2021. In the same period, the money supply has increased sevenfold and interest rates have plummeted. Moreover, the current inflation has probably already cost us more than 100 billion euros since the end of 2020 through the devaluation of the Target balances.
Europe must return to the path of sound monetary policy as soon as possible. Only then can confidence in the euro be maintained and the European dream of prosperity and peace be saved.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Die wundersame Geldvermehrung: Staatsverschuldung, Negativzinsen, Inflation published by Herder Verlag, November 2021, 432 pages. |
Lectures (in German):
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Weihnachtsvorlesung 2021: „Kommt jetzt die Inflation?“ 13 December 2021, app. 90 minutes. |
Contributions on TV:
"ECB's Lagarde is living in a different movie", CNBC, Squawk Box Europe, December 17th, 2021, approximately 5 minutes.
Newspaper articles:
"The End of Free Money", (ref. Project Syndicate, November 29th, 2021), Finanz und Wirtschaft (Switzerland), The Asset, The Japan Times (Japan).
"Europe’s Special Inflation Risks", Project Syndicate, March 23rd, 2021, The Guardian (UK).
"Forget Inflation" (ref. Project Syndicate February 2009), Les Echos (Mali), Power Magazine (Hong Kong), The Korea Herald (Korea, South), Daily Times (Pakistan), Taipei Times (Taiwan), The Nation(Thailand), L'Echo (Belgium), Dnevnik (Bulgaria), Ekonom ( Czech Republic), Aripaev (Estonia), La Tribune ( France), Boersen Zeitung (Germany), Eleftheros Typos (Greece), Vilaggazdasag (Hungary),The North Post (Norway), Jornal De Negocios (Portugal), Finance (Slovenia), L'Agefi (Switzerland), The Guatemala Times (Guatemala), Al Tijaria (Bahrain), Jordan Times (Jordan), Al Raya (Qatar), Diario Las Americas (United States), Financial Week (United States).
„A Shot of Inflation would be Good for Europe“, Financial Times, 21. Mai 2003, S. 15.
Articles in refereed journals:
„Austerity, Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone’s Unresolved Competitiveness Problem“, The World Economy 37 (1), 2014, S. 1-13; (Download, 271 KB); CESifo Working Paper Nr. 4086, Januar 2013; (Download, 207 KB).
„The Non-neutrality of Inflation for International Capital Movements“, European Economic Review 35, 1991, pp. 1-22; (Download, 1.27 MB); NBER Working Paper No. 3219, August 1991.
„Inflation, Scheingewinnbesteuerung und Kapitalallokation“ , in: D. Schneider, Hrsg., Kapitalmarkt und Finanzierung (Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik), Duncker & Humblot: Berlin 1987, pp. 187-210 (Download, 1.6 MB).
„Die Inflationsgewinne des Staates“, in: E. Wille, Hrsg., Beiträge zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Allokation. Allokationsprobleme im intermediären Bereich zwischen öffentlichem und privatem Wirtschaftssektor, Lang: Frankfurt und Bern 1983, pp. 111-166; (Download, 1.5 MB).
„Inflation and Welfare, Comment on Robert Lucas“, A. Leijonhufvud, Hrsg., Tagungsband der IEA Konferenz Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, Palgrave: New York, 2001, pp. 132-142; (Download, 768 KB); CESifo Working Paper No. 179, 1999; NBER Working Paper No. 6979, February 1999; CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2111, March 1999.
Contributions to journals:
Deflation oder Inflation?, ifo Standpunkt, No. 103, March 10th, 2009.
Neue Inflationsziele der EZB, ifo Standpunkt, Nr. 45, 21. Mai 2003.
„Die Mindestinflationsrate für die Euro-Länder“, (together with Michael Reutter), ifo Schnelldienst 53 (35-36), 2000, pp. 23-26.
Working Paper:
„The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland“, (together with M. Reutter), CESifo Working Paper No. 377, 2000; (Download, 145 KB); NBER Working Paper No. 8085, 2001.