Ifo Institute calculates potential losses for Germany and France if Greece declares insolvency

ifo press release, July 25th, 2012

Should Greece become insolvent and exit the Eurosystem, Germany and France would face losses of up to 82 billion euros or 62 billion euros, respectively.

If, however, Greece were to become insolvent but remain in the Eurozone, Germany and France must reckon with losses of up to 89 billion euros and 67 billion euros, respectively.

These figures take into account the amounts already paid out from both bail-out packages for Greece, purchases of Greek sovereign bonds by the central banks of the Eurozone countries, the Target liabilities of the Greek central bank (status: end of April 2012), Greek liabilities arising from its disproportionate issuance of bank notes and the Greek central bank’s claims against the Greek banking system. They do not take into account the write-off losses of German and French private creditors, notably banks and insurance companies.

The breakdown of the above sums is presented in the document (PDF).